中信证券：美国就业市场走弱推动9月降息预期大幅升温

Core Viewpoint - The July non-farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, compounded by the U.S. Labor Department's substantial downward revision of May and June data, leading to a three-month average decline to 35,300, well below the 100,000 mark [1] Group 1 - The downward revision of employment data for May and June was much larger than normal, indicating potential weaknesses in the labor market [1] - If the three-month average of non-farm employment remains below 100,000 after the August data is released in early September, a rate cut in September becomes highly likely [1] - The July non-farm report has reignited market expectations for a rate cut in September, causing a sharp decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield immediately after the data release [1] Group 2 - The potential for further declines in the 10-year Treasury yield will depend on weak economic data from the U.S. or a clear dovish shift from the Federal Reserve [1]