李迅雷：以旧换新换什么乘数效应更大

Core Insights - The article discusses the expansion of the "trade-in for new" policy in China, which will begin in 2024, aiming to stimulate consumption across various categories, including essential goods and services [1][19] - The policy is supported by a significant financial commitment, with 150 billion yuan allocated in 2024 and an increase to 300 billion yuan in 2025, targeting a wide range of consumer goods [1][2] - The expected impact of the policy includes a projected sales boost exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan in 2024, driven by sectors such as automobiles, home appliances, and electric bicycles [1][4] Policy Implementation - The "trade-in for new" policy will cover five major categories in 2025, including the replacement of vehicles and digital products [2] - Specific subsidy standards have been established, such as 20,000 yuan for new energy vehicles and 15,000 yuan for certain fuel vehicles [3] Financial Impact - In the first half of the year, central subsidies of 162 billion yuan led to sales exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan, with a total subsidy of over 180 billion yuan when including local funding [4][5] - The estimated maximum subsidy across categories could reach 233.4 billion yuan, indicating a potential for higher financial support than previously allocated [6] Consumption Growth - The "trade-in for new" policy has contributed to a 5% increase in retail sales, with significant growth in categories such as home appliances and communication equipment [8][11] - The contribution of final consumption to economic growth reached 52% in the first half of the year, highlighting the foundational role of consumption in economic development [11] Optimization Suggestions - Recommendations include expanding the scope of the trade-in policy to include essential goods and services, which could benefit a broader demographic [19][20] - The article suggests that the policy should consider the indirect effects on overall consumption, as initial purchases may lead to additional spending in related sectors [20]