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PTA:宏观情绪企稳不过油价仍偏弱 短期PTA偏弱震荡
Jin Tou Wang·2025-08-06 02:05

Market Overview - On August 5, PTA futures experienced low-level narrow fluctuations, with a slight improvement in the spot trading atmosphere. The basis was weak, and trading was mainly based on negotiations, with a small number of polyester factories making sales. Mainstream suppliers had some sales, with August cargo trading at a discount of 12 to 25 yuan/ton, and prices negotiated in the range of 4650 to 4660 yuan/ton. September transactions were at par and slightly above the September futures [1] Profitability - As of August 5, the PTA spot processing fee was around 140 yuan/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 futures was 271 yuan/ton [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of August 1, PTA operating load decreased to 72.6%, a drop of 7.3%. - Demand: As of August 1, polyester operating load slightly decreased to approximately 88.1%, a decline of 0.6%. On August 5, the price of polyester filament showed a slight downward adjustment, with overall sales being sluggish. Current inventory levels at filament factories are manageable, and prices are mainly adjusting slightly with raw materials. Terminal loads are temporarily maintained, awaiting the "Golden September and Silver October" period. Future attention will be on crude oil prices and the initiation of the peak season [3] Market Outlook - With low processing fees, there will be an increase in PTA plant maintenance in August. The supply and demand situation for PTA is expected to improve compared to previous expectations. However, with the commissioning of new PTA facilities by Helun Petrochemical and continued weak new orders from terminals, the medium-term supply and demand outlook for PTA is weak. Additionally, oil prices are under pressure due to OPEC+ production increase expectations. Short-term PTA is expected to experience weak fluctuations, but as market macro sentiment gradually stabilizes, there may be emotional support for PTA. Strategies include exiting TA short positions and monitoring support around 4600, as well as rolling back TA9-1 operations and expanding low PTA processing fees around 250 [4]