钢材：市场预期降温 钢材转为震荡

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a price increase, with rising spot prices and a weakening basis, indicating a potential shift in supply-demand dynamics [1][6]. Supply - Iron element production from January to July increased by 18 million tons, a growth rate of 3.1%, with production levels stabilizing in July compared to June [3]. - The production of rebar and hot-rolled steel has shown stability and slight recovery, with rebar production at 2.11 million tons and hot-rolled steel at 3.23 million tons [3]. Demand - The demand for the five major steel products remained stable year-on-year, with a slight decrease of 0.2%, while production saw a larger decline of 1.3% [4]. - Domestic demand has decreased, but external demand has increased significantly, offsetting the decline in domestic consumption [4]. Inventory - Recent production levels have aligned with demand, leading to a stabilization of inventory levels, with total inventory for the five major materials increasing by 154,000 tons to 13.52 million tons [5]. - Rebar inventory increased by 77,000 tons to 5.46 million tons, while hot-rolled steel inventory rose by 28,000 tons to 3.48 million tons [5]. Cost and Profit - The cost of production is rising due to the recovery of coking coal supply, while steel prices are also increasing, leading to improved profit margins for steel mills [2]. - The current profit ranking for steel products is as follows: billet > hot-rolled > rebar > cold-rolled [2]. Market Outlook - The black metal market is showing signs of recovery, with a balance between supply and demand during the off-season, and expectations of a transition to peak demand [6]. - Short-term inventory pressure is low, and the upcoming shift to peak demand is expected to support steel prices [6].