供强需弱格局延续 8月猪价或延续短涨长跌态势

Core Viewpoint - The national pig prices in July experienced a pattern of initial increase followed by a decline and a slight rebound, primarily due to an oversupply caused by concentrated weight reduction in the breeding sector and insufficient support from secondary fattening operations. Looking ahead to August, it is expected that pig prices may decline month-on-month under the fundamentals of increased supply and weak demand [1][5]. Supply Analysis - In early July, the willingness of breeders to sell was low, leading to tight market supply and increased purchasing difficulties for downstream buyers, which forced prices up. However, as the selling pace gradually recovered and active weight reduction operations were implemented, the supply of pigs became abundant, particularly with a significant increase in the outflow from sample breeding enterprises in mid to late July [3]. - The forecast for August indicates a notable increase in supply, with 2,133,490 pigs planned for slaughter by 212 sample breeding enterprises, representing a 7.01% month-on-month increase. This suggests that supply will exert downward pressure on pig prices [5][7]. Demand Analysis - Demand support in August is expected to be limited due to high temperatures, which will suppress the consumption of pork. Additionally, the absence of holidays or other favorable factors will weaken demand support for prices [7]. - Market sentiment indicates that the active weight reduction by breeders, combined with summer heat suppressing weight gain, may lead to an average slaughter weight of around 123 kg in August and September. Although there may be a temporary reduction in supply after weight reduction ends, the expected limited replenishment in August will not effectively support pig prices [7][8]. Price Trend Outlook - Overall, in August, with the combination of increased supply and reduced demand, along with limited support from secondary fattening, pig prices are expected to decline month-on-month, with an average price projected at 14.23 yuan per kilogram. The price trend is anticipated to exhibit a pattern of rise—fall—rise, with the duration of the rising phase being shorter than that of the falling phase [5][7].