锑出口修复在望，边际需求反转有望拉动锑价上行 | 投研报告

Core Viewpoint - The recent crackdown on strategic mineral smuggling in China has led to a significant decline in antimony exports, but a shift in export management is expected to facilitate a recovery in export volumes and stabilize antimony prices [1][3][4]. Group 1: Export Control and Market Impact - In May, China initiated a special action to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals, resulting in a sharp decline in antimony exports, with volumes dropping from over 800 tons per month in February, March, and April to 225 tons and 138 tons in May and June, representing declines of 73% and 39% respectively [1][3]. - The export control measures have created a significant price gap between domestic and international markets, leading to increased smuggling activities [3]. Group 2: Price Trends and Future Outlook - Antimony prices have experienced fluctuations, with a notable decline due to reduced export demand and slower photovoltaic glass production. However, the recent easing of export management is expected to support price stabilization and potential recovery [2][4]. - Projections indicate that the third quarter may see a reversal in marginal supply and demand dynamics, with expectations of increased antimony prices as export volumes recover to levels seen earlier in the year [5]. Group 3: Recommendations and Key Players - Companies in the antimony sector, such as Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, Huayu Mining, and Yuguang Gold Lead, are recommended for attention as the market dynamics shift [6].