PMI数据喜忧参半 英国央行利率决议更趋复杂

Group 1 - The core point of the news indicates that the UK services sector experienced a significant decline in new orders in July, marking the largest drop since November 2022 [1] - The final CIPS/S&P Global Services PMI for July decreased from 52.8 in June to 51.8, although it was higher than the preliminary estimate of 51.2 [1] - The new business index fell below the neutral 50 mark to 47.7, the lowest level since November 2022, reflecting weak sales due to customer risk aversion and low confidence [1] - The employment sub-index dropped to 45.6, indicating a six-month low, as companies froze hiring and laid off workers due to weak demand [1] - Despite the challenges, business optimism improved, with the future activity index rising to 65.9, the second-highest level since October 2022, driven by easing concerns over tariff discussions and hopes for interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [1] - The market widely anticipates a rate cut by the Bank of England, but the mixed data may complicate its decision-making process [1] Group 2 - The GBP/USD exchange rate is facing resistance at the upper Bollinger band (1.3346) and the convergence of short-term moving averages [2] - Short-term support is located near the previous low of 1.3140, with a potential further test of the 1.31 psychological level if it breaks below [2] - The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, but the slowing red histogram indicates limited upward momentum, suggesting a tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the short term [2]