Workflow
国内的产销数据非常好 预计糖价支撑很强
Jin Tou Wang·2025-08-06 06:04

Market Overview - As of August 5, the profit from producing white sugar in China using imported Brazilian raw sugar is approximately 1839 CNY/ton (within tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 642 CNY/ton (outside tariff quota, 50% tariff) [1] - The profit from producing white sugar in China using imported Thai raw sugar is about 1792 CNY/ton (within tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 582 CNY/ton (outside tariff quota, 50% tariff) [1] - Tereos, one of the world's largest sugar producers, reported a significant decline in quarterly profits due to low sugar prices impacting its core business and increased competition in its ethanol business due to a weaker dollar [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The sugar production in Brazil's central-southern region for the 25/26 season is expected to decrease year-on-year due to heavy rainfall in June, while sugar production in India and Thailand is projected to increase [2] - Domestic sugar sales data is strong, with sugar inventory in Guangxi estimated at around 800,000 tons [2] - There is uncertainty regarding future import levels, with expectations of 750,000 tons imported in July, followed by a gradual decrease in August, which may alleviate import pressure [2] Price Trends and Recommendations - Recent rapid adjustments in Zhengzhou sugar prices are primarily influenced by overall market corrections, but the current season is entering a consumption peak, suggesting strong cost support for domestic sugar prices [2] - The market is advised to consider buying on stabilization, with a reference support level for Zhengzhou sugar at 5500 CNY/ton [2] - International oil prices have declined, influenced by increased OPEC+ supply and concerns over weak global demand, which has led to a weak performance in Zhengzhou sugar futures [3] - The market lacks new fundamental themes, with attention on support around 5600 CNY/ton, and short-term trading is recommended [3]