港口预期累库趋势 预计甲醇期货反弹空间有限

Market Review - Methanol futures for September increased by 7 yuan/ton, closing at 2397 yuan/ton, while spot prices rose by 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of -27 [1] Fundamental Summary - The overall trading focus for methanol in mainland China has risen, with Inner Mongolia's average price reaching 2047 yuan/ton as of August 1, reflecting a 1.29% increase month-on-month [2] - As of July, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market remained stable in the range of 332.50-333.50 USD/ton, while the US Gulf methanol market was around 95-96 cents/gallon, and the FOB Rotterdam methanol market was approximately 245.5-246.5 EUR/ton [2] - Due to typhoon weather, methanol imports in July significantly underperformed expectations, with a total of 1.1069 million tons unloaded, and over 200,000 tons delayed to August [2] Institutional Perspectives - Ningzheng Futures noted that domestic methanol production is at a high level, with slight increases in downstream demand and an upward adjustment in August import expectations, leading to a trend of port inventory accumulation. The domestic methanol market remains strong, with smooth auction transactions, while the port market's basis remains stable, and overall transactions are average. The methanol January contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support around 2485 [3] - Hongyuan Futures indicated that upstream coal profits remain high, while coastal MTO profits have slightly declined. However, the downstream profits in the mainland are still low, indicating potential for recovery. Methanol valuation appears relatively high, and the impact of anti-involution policies on methanol production may be limited due to the low proportion of old production facilities. Additionally, high raw material inventories at downstream MTO companies may suppress further inventory building, leading to a likely trend of port inventory accumulation, which could pressure spot prices in East China. Recent coking coal sentiment may still affect methanol, but based on weak fundamentals, the rebound potential for methanol is expected to be limited [3]