Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised the profit forecasts for Gu Ming (01364) and Mixue Group (02097) for this year by 9% and 1% respectively, indicating that the duration of food delivery subsidies has exceeded expectations [1] Company Summaries - Gu Ming's profit forecast for next year has been increased by 4%, reflecting strong performance of new products and efforts in brand investment for 2024 to 2025 [1] - The target price for Gu Ming has been raised from HKD 29.2 to HKD 30, while Mixue's target price has been adjusted from HKD 597 to HKD 599, with both companies rated as "Buy" [1] Industry Insights - Competition among food delivery platforms has intensified since June, with platforms engaging in more aggressive investments, including subsidies [1] - The expected duration of these investments in daily applications is anticipated to be longer than previous investments seen in e-commerce platforms [1] - Increased subsidies are expected to boost transaction volumes, leading to potential profit upside for fresh beverage companies this year [1] - Investors are concerned about the outlook for next year given the high base, the competitive landscape in the fresh beverage industry, and the potential long-term impacts on consumer behavior and price perception [1] - Short-term stock prices for Mixue Group and Gu Ming may be influenced by the sentiment surrounding delivery platform strategies, with worries that normalization of subsidies could lead to a decline in per-store transaction amounts [1] - The investor lock-up period for Gu Ming will expire next Monday (11th), and the seasonal slowdown after summer may limit short-term sentiment [1] - Despite these concerns, there is optimism regarding the long-term positions of both companies, with expectations that subsidy normalization may improve the competitive landscape [1]
高盛：上调蜜雪集团(02097)及古茗(01364)目标价 维持“买入”评级