Core Viewpoint - The bond secondary market showed increased trading activity in July, particularly in credit bonds, with a "V-shaped" trend in credit spreads, which first narrowed and then widened, ending the month at a low level for the year [1][4]. Trading Activity - The total transaction amount in the bond secondary market for July reached 413,960.27 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.28% and a month-on-month increase of 9.36% [2]. - In terms of bond types, interest rate bonds had a transaction amount of 256,461.17 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 0.38% and a month-on-month increase of 11.88%. Credit bonds had a transaction amount of 86,840.69 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 16.32% and a month-on-month increase of 12.28% [4]. Credit Bond Characteristics - The transaction structure of credit bonds showed divergence, with industrial bonds experiencing a significant increase in transaction volume by 22.35%, but a decline in quality as the proportion of AAA-rated bonds decreased while AA+ and AA-rated bonds increased. The duration extended towards the 3-5 year medium to long term [4]. - Conversely, city investment bonds saw a slight decrease in transaction volume by 2.40%, with credit quality concentrating towards AAA-rated bonds and durations extending beyond 5 years [4]. Credit Spread Trends - The overall credit spread exhibited a "V-shaped" trend, narrowing initially and then widening, with the month-end spread at 44.99 basis points, which is an increase of 14.54 basis points compared to the same period last year, but a slight decrease of 1.33 basis points from the end of the previous month [4]. Industry Spread Analysis - As of July 31, the median credit spreads by industry showed high spreads in textiles and apparel (153.07 bp), real estate (98.47 bp), and electrical equipment (86.35 bp), while public utilities and transportation had lower spreads (44.89 bp and 46.84 bp respectively) [5]. - Most industries in the industrial bond sector saw a decrease in credit spreads, with upstream energy remaining stable, while the communication sector in midstream manufacturing experienced a slight widening [5]. Future Outlook - The trading activity in credit bonds is expected to continue to rise, with credit spreads likely to remain within a fluctuating range. The implementation of the new VAT policy is expected to maintain the tax burden on industrial and city investment bonds, enhancing their comparative advantages and potentially increasing institutional demand [4][5].
【机构观债】2025年7月债市成交持续回温 信用利差延续震荡
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-08-06 08:15