【深度】“摆脱”城投债，券商资管转型迎大考

Core Viewpoint - The current favorable conditions for broker asset management relying on city investment bonds are expected to last only for about a year, as credit spreads are rapidly compressing, leading to a decline in the performance of fixed-income products and potential job losses for fixed-income investment managers [1][4][10]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The strategy of holding low-credit city investment bonds to earn management fees is becoming less viable due to extreme compression of credit spreads [1][4]. - The fixed-income investment managers are facing a significant decline in business opportunities, with expectations of widespread underperformance in fixed-income products starting next year [1][10]. - The yield on high-grade long-term city investment bonds has dropped significantly, with 3-year AAA-rated bonds now yielding in the "1" range [8][9]. Group 2: Historical Context and Strategy Shift - Historically, broker asset management relied heavily on city investment bonds due to their government backing and low default risk, especially after the 2016 supply-side reforms led to widespread defaults in corporate bonds [5][6]. - The past decade saw investment managers achieving over 6.4% annualized returns with minimal volatility by primarily investing in city investment bonds [4][7]. - The transition to a more diversified asset strategy has begun, with a shift from city investment bonds to a multi-asset approach that includes domestic and international stocks, commodities, and bonds [3][11]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Outlook - The fixed-income sector is facing three major challenges: a sharp decline in static returns, increased duration risk, and intertwined credit and liquidity risks [9][10]. - The asset management industry is expected to undergo significant transformation, with successful firms likely to be those that can differentiate themselves and leverage talent effectively [11][12]. - The growth of FOF (Fund of Funds) products is seen as a strategic move to adapt to changing market conditions, with a notable increase in issuance from 2021 to 2024 [16][18].