“灭菌乳新国标”施行在即 将给乳业带来哪些影响？

Core Viewpoint - The new national standard for sterilized milk (GB 25190-2010) will be implemented on September 16, 2025, prohibiting the use of reconstituted milk and mandating that sterilized milk must be made from raw milk, which is expected to enhance the quality and flavor of the product while increasing demand for raw milk in the dairy industry [1][2][3]. Group 1: Implementation and Impact of New Standards - The new standard aims to improve the quality of sterilized milk by ensuring it is produced solely from raw milk, which is anticipated to boost the demand for raw milk and benefit dairy farmers [1][5]. - The implementation of the new standard is seen as a positive step for the future quality development of China's dairy industry, enhancing the competitiveness of domestic milk sources and meeting consumer demand for high-quality dairy products [1][3][5]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has indicated that the new standard will promote a closer connection between dairy farming and processing, fostering integrated development across the dairy supply chain [1][5][6]. Group 2: Quality and Safety of Raw Milk - The new standard raises the quality requirements for raw materials, as only raw milk can be used for producing sterilized milk, which is supported by the current high quality and safety levels of China's raw milk production [4][5]. - Data from the 2025 China Dairy Quality Report indicates that the raw milk production capacity continues to improve, with a total milk output of 40.794 million tons and a raw milk inspection pass rate of 99.96% in 2024, demonstrating the capability to support the new standard [4]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The new standard is not expected to significantly increase the prices of dairy products, as the current low prices of raw milk can support the production costs without additional financial burden on processing companies [7]. - The establishment of a dairy industry system based on raw milk is anticipated to positively influence both producers and consumers, stabilizing the dairy farming sector and boosting consumer confidence in dairy products [7]. Group 4: Broader Industry Context - The new standard specifically targets sterilized milk and does not affect other dairy products like yogurt, which can still use reconstituted milk, although long-term consumer preferences may shift towards higher quality standards [8]. - Internationally, the use of only raw milk for sterilized milk production aligns with common standards in regions such as the EU and Japan, which may enhance the credibility of Chinese dairy products in the global market [9][10].