【深度】城投债收益率跌进“1”时代，券商资管转型迎大考

Core Viewpoint - The current favorable conditions for broker asset management relying on city investment bonds are expected to last only for about a year, as credit spreads are rapidly compressing, leading to a decline in the performance of fixed-income investment managers [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Trends - The strategy of holding low-credit city investment bonds to maturity has been widely adopted by broker asset management firms, relying on bond yields and a bull market for bonds to achieve excess returns [3][4]. - Since 2022, the market for city investment bonds has been evolving along two main lines: a continuous decline in risk-free interest rates and increased constraints on local government debt issuance, leading to extreme compression of credit spreads [6][7]. - As of now, high-grade long-term city investment bond yields have entered the "2" era, with yields for AAA-rated bonds under three years dropping to the "1" range [7]. Group 2: Challenges Faced by the Industry - The fixed-income investment sector is facing three major challenges: a sharp decline in static returns, passive duration extension leading to significant net value fluctuations, and intertwined credit and liquidity risks due to tightening city investment policies [8][9]. - The reliance on city investment bonds is becoming increasingly difficult to meet the performance benchmarks set by banks, with expectations that many fixed-income products will fail to meet these benchmarks starting next year [10]. Group 3: Transformation and Strategic Shifts - Broker asset management firms are undergoing a transformation to diversify their investment strategies, moving from a reliance on city investment bonds to a multi-asset and multi-strategy approach, including domestic and international stocks, commodities, and bonds [2][11]. - The industry is seeing a significant increase in the issuance of Fund of Funds (FOF) products, with 52 firms having issued a total of 405 FOF products as of July 30, indicating a shift towards more diversified asset management strategies [17][18]. - Successful transformation in the broker asset management sector will likely depend on talent and differentiation, with firms needing to leverage their comprehensive capabilities and deep market knowledge to provide customized solutions [12][19].