市场情绪亮红灯，美股多头再添一忧

Core Viewpoint - The strong rebound in the U.S. stock market may soon cool down, raising concerns among bulls as the Bloomberg Intelligence Market Pulse Index indicates that investor sentiment may be overheated [1][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Indicators - The Bloomberg Intelligence Market Pulse Index reached the "euphoria" zone last month, suggesting that investor sentiment is at a high level, which historically leads to weaker returns in the following three months [1][4]. - The S&P 500 index rebounded nearly 30% from its April low, despite signs of weakness in the U.S. economy and labor market [1]. - The index recorded a value of 0.6 in July, remaining in the "euphoria" zone for the second consecutive month, which historically correlates with lower average returns for the Russell 3000 index in the following three months [4][5]. Group 2: Historical Context and Predictions - Historical data shows that when the Market Pulse Index enters the "euphoria" zone, the average return for the Russell 3000 index over the next three months is only 2.9%, while it can reach 9% when in the "panic" zone [4]. - Analysts from Morgan Stanley and Evercore predict potential market corrections of 10% and 15%, respectively, indicating a consensus on the likelihood of a downturn [4][5]. - Seasonal factors are also a concern, as August and September are historically the worst-performing months for the S&P 500 index [4]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - The recent surge in the Market Pulse Index is partly attributed to a resurgence in meme stocks, with retail investors flocking to speculative stocks like Opendoor Technologies and Kohl's [5]. - The Market Pulse Index is based on six indicators, including price breadth and high-yield bond spreads, with a reading of 0.7 in July indicating extreme risk appetite [6]. - Continuous readings above 0.6 typically suggest mean reversion in the stock market, with small-cap stocks expected to underperform large-cap stocks in the following months [7].