Core Insights - The new tax regulation on interest income from newly issued government bonds, effective from August 8, 2025, has triggered a surge in demand for existing bonds, leading to a strong performance in both the stock and bond markets [1][5] - The policy is expected to have a limited short-term impact on the overall bond market direction, with institutions believing that it will not alter the long-term trends [5][6] Group 1: Market Reactions - The announcement of the tax on new bond issuances led to a "rush for old bonds," with institutions favoring existing tax-exempt bonds [2][5] - Following the policy announcement, the yield on 10-year government bonds initially rose but then fell, indicating a preference for holding existing bonds [2][5] - The yield on 10-year and 30-year government bonds decreased by 1 basis point, reflecting market adjustments to the new tax expectations [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The new tax regulation is seen as beneficial for credit bonds and money market instruments, with institutions likely to increase allocations to these areas [3][4] - Public funds are expected to benefit from the tax advantages compared to proprietary trading accounts, as public funds remain exempt from the new tax [3][4] - The potential for increased investment in the "southbound bond connect" is noted, as it remains unaffected by the new tax [4] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Institutions believe that the new tax policy will not significantly alter the long-term trajectory of the bond market, with expectations of a bifurcation between new and old bonds [5][6] - The policy aims to guide funds from the bond market to the stock market and credit markets, aligning with broader economic goals [5][6] - The restoration of the tax is projected to contribute approximately 4 billion RMB to fiscal revenue in 2025 and around 25 billion RMB by 2026, although this is considered limited compared to the overall tax revenue [6][7]
国债等利息收入恢复征收增值税,中外资机构如何调整投资策略?
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-08-06 12:53