硅料价格回升见顶，仍待传闻“收储方案”落地

Core Viewpoint - After a month of continuous recovery, the price of silicon materials has stabilized, with current prices ranging from 45,000 to 49,000 yuan per ton, following a previous increase from approximately 30,000 to 36,000 yuan per ton [1] Price Trends - The price of polysilicon futures surged to 54,705 yuan per ton on July 30 but has since dropped to around 50,000 yuan per ton, slightly above the spot price [1] - The increase in polysilicon prices is linked to regulatory efforts aimed at curbing low-price competition and guiding companies towards rational pricing [1][2] Industry Dynamics - Currently, most silicon material companies are achieving breakeven at the current price levels, contrasting with previous losses [3] - The price recovery in the photovoltaic industry depends on supply-side structural reforms in polysilicon and the price transmission effect to downstream components [3] Downstream Impact - The downstream component sector has struggled to raise prices in line with silicon material increases, with current component prices around 0.665 to 0.707 yuan per watt, reflecting only a minor increase since July [2][3] - Each watt of component requires approximately 2 grams of silicon material, meaning a 10,000 yuan per ton increase in silicon price raises component costs by about 0.1 yuan per watt [3] Regulatory Environment - The decline in investment returns for photovoltaic power stations is a significant factor limiting component price increases, as outlined in the "136 Document" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission [4][5] - New regulations set a mechanism price of 0.4155 yuan per kilowatt-hour for projects connected to the grid before June 1, 2025, impacting the financial viability of new installations [6] Production Capacity and Storage Plans - Despite price stabilization, polysilicon production capacity is increasing, particularly in regions with low energy costs [7][8] - A proposed storage plan aims to establish a storage capacity of 1.2 to 1.3 million tons, with a target to maintain around 70% operational capacity to meet market demand [8]