Group 1: Economic Confidence Index - The "First Financial Chief Economist Confidence Index" for August 2025 is reported at 50.2, an increase from 49.9 in the previous month, indicating improved market confidence [1][5][4] - Economists believe that external uncertainties still exist, and future economic development will require further support from macro policies [1][5] Group 2: Economic Predictions for July 2025 - The predicted year-on-year CPI for July is -0.2%, while the PPI is expected to be -3.3% [8][12] - The forecast for fixed asset investment growth is 2.8%, and the social retail sales growth is projected at 4.9% [11][14] - The predicted year-on-year industrial value-added growth is 6.0% [13] - The trade surplus for July is expected to be $1040.2 million, with exports growing at 5.6% and imports declining by 0.6% [18] - New loans are forecasted to drop to 3499.2 billion yuan, while the total social financing is expected to be 1.5 trillion yuan [19][20] - The M2 year-on-year growth rate is predicted to be 8.2% [21] Group 3: Currency and Foreign Exchange Reserves - The predicted exchange rate for the RMB against the USD at the end of August is 7.1 [23] - The foreign exchange reserves are expected to decrease to $33064.6 million by the end of July [24] Group 4: Policy Outlook - Economists anticipate a more proactive fiscal policy in the second half of the year, focusing on government bond issuance and usage [28][29] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with potential for further interest rate cuts [29] Group 5: Hainan Free Trade Port - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start its full closure operation on December 18, 2025, which is seen as a significant step towards high-level opening-up [30][31] - Economists express optimism about Hainan's role as a pilot for institutional innovation and its potential to attract global resources [30][33]
一财首席经济学家调研：市场信心有所改善，下半年政策应增强灵活性预见性
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-08-06 12:50