国债等利息收入恢复征收增值税 中外资机构如何调整投资策略？

Core Viewpoint - The new tax regulation on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, has triggered a surge in demand for existing bonds, leading to a strong performance in both the stock and bond markets [1][5][6]. Summary by Sections Tax Regulation Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced that interest income from newly issued bonds will be subject to value-added tax (VAT) starting August 8, 2025, while existing bonds will remain exempt until maturity [1][6]. - This change has led to a "buying spree" for existing bonds, as institutions seek to avoid the new tax burden [2][5]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the yield on 10-year government bonds initially rose but then fell back, indicating a preference for existing tax-exempt bonds [2][5]. - The yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds were reported at 1.6975% and 1.919%, respectively, down from recent highs [2][5]. Investment Shifts - Institutions expect that the new regulation will favor credit bonds and certificates of deposit, as they remain unaffected by the new tax [3][4]. - Public funds are anticipated to benefit from the tax advantages over proprietary accounts, as public funds are exempt from both income tax and VAT [3][4]. Long-term Market Outlook - Many institutions believe that the new regulation will not alter the long-term trajectory of the bond market, which is expected to remain stable despite short-term fluctuations [5][6]. - The policy aims to redirect some funds from the bond market to the stock market and credit bond market, aligning with broader economic goals [5][6]. Fiscal Implications - The restoration of VAT on bond interest is projected to increase fiscal revenue, with estimates suggesting an additional 4 billion RMB in tax revenue this year and 25 billion RMB by 2026 [6][7]. - However, some foreign institutions argue that the overall contribution to tax revenue will be minimal compared to the total tax revenue scale [7].