环渤海动力煤价格指数连续4周上涨

Core Viewpoint - The price index for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region has increased, driven by supply constraints and rising demand, indicating a bullish sentiment among traders [1][2]. Supply Factors - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index closed at 668 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from the previous period, marking four consecutive weeks of price increases [1]. - Frequent rainfall has hindered coal production and transportation in major production areas, leading to a significant drop in coal transportation volumes, with the daily average for the Daqin Railway remaining below 1 million tons for 12 consecutive days, averaging 920,000 tons [1]. - The structural imbalance in coal types at ports has intensified, supporting traders' price-holding mentality and pushing port coal prices higher [1]. Demand Factors - The impact of typhoons on coastal regions has diminished, and high temperatures have increased residential electricity load, driving up power generation demand [2]. - Coal consumption by power plants in eight coastal provinces has surged, approaching 2.5 million tons, the highest level since September 14, 2024 [2]. - The number of days of available coal stock has dropped to less than 14, indicating a release of incremental replenishment demand, although logistical issues have prevented a surge in centralized procurement [2]. Overall Market Outlook - The current logistics constraints are limiting the transfer of coal to ports and downstream markets, resulting in a weak supply and slow demand release in the coastal coal market [2]. - Once temporary impacts subside and transportation logistics return to normal, demand is likely to outpace supply, suggesting potential upward pressure on coastal coal prices [2].