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每经热评丨时隔10年 两融余额再破2万亿 从抱团到分散 杠杆资金更稳健理性
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-08-06 16:56

Core Viewpoint - The A-share margin financing and securities lending (two-in-one) balance has surpassed 2 trillion yuan, marking a significant change in its structure and stability compared to 2015, with a shift from concentrated to diversified participation [1][2][4]. Group 1: Changes in Margin Financing Balance - As of August 5, the two-in-one balance reached 2,002.59 billion yuan, the first time exceeding 2 trillion yuan since May 20, 2015 [1]. - The number of stocks with margin financing has increased significantly from 835 in 2015 to 3,712 currently, while the average margin balance per stock has decreased from over 20 billion yuan to about 5 billion yuan [1]. - The concentration of margin financing has decreased, with the top 100 stocks now accounting for only 25% of the total margin balance, down from 43% in 2015 [1]. Group 2: Time Dimension of Margin Financing - In early 2015, the two-in-one balance reached 1 trillion yuan and quickly rose to 2 trillion yuan, but this was followed by a rapid decline due to irrational market behavior [2]. - By February 2024, the margin balance hit a low of 1,421.1 billion yuan, but has since increased steadily by over 578.9 billion yuan without irrational impulses, contributing positively to the A-share market [2]. - Currently, the total market capitalization of A-shares has surpassed 100 trillion yuan, with the margin balance at 2 trillion yuan, representing only 2.3% of the total market capitalization, indicating a healthy level [2]. Group 3: Participant Diversification - The number of brokerage firms providing margin financing has decreased in concentration, with only 5 firms exceeding 100 billion yuan in margin lending by the end of 2024, down from 8 firms in 2015 [3]. - The number of individual investors participating in margin financing has slightly increased to 746.98 million, while the number of institutional investors has grown significantly to 50,944 [3]. - The increase in both supply and demand participants, along with a more rational internal structure, suggests that the volatility of margin financing will continue to decrease [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The recent increase in the two-in-one balance is seen as a new starting point, with low-risk interest rates enhancing the attractiveness of A-shares and declining brokerage financing rates reducing the cost of leverage [4]. - These combined effects indicate that there is considerable room for growth in the margin financing market [4].