Rivian Takes Earnings Hit—R2 Could Be the Stock's 2026 Lifeline

Core Viewpoint - Rivian Automotive's recent financial results indicate challenges in profitability and production, with a focus on the upcoming R2 vehicle launch in 2026 as a potential turning point for the company [4][10][14]. Financial Performance - In Q2, Rivian reported revenues of $1.30 billion, a 12% increase year-over-year, slightly exceeding Wall Street's projection of $1.27 billion [4]. - The diluted loss per share was 97 cents, which is a 33% improvement from the same period last year but significantly worse than the expected loss of 65 cents per share [4]. - Rivian's gross margin was -16%, a decline from a positive gross margin of 10% in Q4 2024 and 17% in Q1 2025, with vehicle production falling approximately 57% from Q1 due to supply chain issues [5]. Future Outlook - Rivian updated its adjusted 2025 EBITDA guidance, now expecting a loss between $2 billion and $2.25 billion, which is about $325 million more than the previous estimate [6]. - The company is optimistic about the R2 vehicle, set to launch in the first half of 2026, which is crucial for its long-term success [8][10]. - Rivian has locked in materials costs for the R2, which are 50% lower than those for the R1, potentially aiding in achieving a sustainably positive gross margin [9]. Market Position - Rivian's stock has seen a significant decline, down around 88% since going public, contrasting with the performance of market leaders like Tesla and BYD, which have achieved substantial returns [13][14]. - Analysts view Rivian as significantly undervalued, with price targets reaching as high as $18, despite the current hold rating [2][8].