海外因素会否影响下半年我国货币政策调控？

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes that maintaining economic stability will be crucial for stabilizing the exchange rate, with macroeconomic policies focusing on growth as the primary factor for exchange rate stability [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Policy - The PBOC aims to keep the RMB exchange rate flexible and stable, reinforcing expectations and preventing excessive fluctuations [1]. - The current economic fundamentals in China are improving, providing a solid foundation for the RMB's stability despite uncertainties in the USD's performance [1][2]. - The PBOC's stance is clear: it will not seek to devalue the RMB for competitive advantages, maintaining the market's decisive role in exchange rate formation [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Policy - The macroeconomic policy for the second half of the year will focus on stabilizing growth through increased fiscal support, monetary easing, and efforts to stabilize the real estate market [1]. - This approach is expected to mitigate external volatility's impact on the domestic economy and provide crucial support for the RMB exchange rate [1]. Group 3: Cross-Border Capital Flow Management - Experts suggest that China should enhance macro-prudential management of cross-border capital flows and guide expectations to manage the complexities of international capital movements [3]. - The anticipated easing of monetary policy in major economies may lead to increased capital inflows into China, supporting its capital markets [3]. - There is a need for close monitoring of cross-border capital flows to balance higher levels of foreign exchange openness with the support of the real economy and the prevention of external shocks [3].