Can Mission Produce Handle Margin Pressures From Mexico Supply?

Core Insights - Mission Produce (AVO) experienced margin pressures in Q2 due to sourcing challenges from Mexico, a key supplier, but adapted by sourcing from California and Peru, stabilizing margins by mid-March [1][8] - The company's long-term investments in infrastructure and a vertically integrated model allowed for quick operational adjustments, reducing reliance on co-packers and enhancing supply chain resilience [2] - AVO anticipates a 150% increase in avocado production from its Peruvian orchards in H2 fiscal 2025, which will reduce dependence on Mexico and support margin recovery [3][8] Company Positioning - Mission Produce is well-positioned to handle supply volatility, backed by strong grower relationships and diversified sourcing strategies [3] - The company maintains a competitive edge over rivals like Calavo Growers, Inc. (CVGW) and Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. (FDP) through its end-to-end control of the supply chain [6] Competitive Landscape - Calavo Growers focuses on avocados and prepared foods, leveraging strong grower relationships and a vertically integrated model for supply chain control [5] - Fresh Del Monte operates with a broad portfolio and global logistics but lacks the avocado-specific infrastructure that distinguishes Mission Produce [6] Financial Performance - AVO shares have increased by 21.1% over the past three months, outperforming the industry growth of 12.7% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 24.91X, significantly higher than the industry average of 14.94X [9] - Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year earnings decline of 20.3% for fiscal 2025 and 2026, with estimates remaining unchanged over the past week [10]