海外因素会否影响下半年我国货币政策调控？宏观政策发力稳增长为稳汇率提供关键支撑

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's monetary policy can maintain a "self-directed" approach despite uncertainties in major developed economies' monetary policies, with limited impact from overseas adjustments on China's autonomy [1][2][3] - Experts believe that China's monetary policy will prioritize domestic growth, employment, and price stability rather than being influenced by cross-border capital flows or foreign monetary policies [2][3] - The People's Bank of China emphasizes maintaining exchange rate flexibility and preventing excessive fluctuations, with macro policies aimed at stabilizing growth being a key factor for exchange rate stability [3][4] Group 2 - The potential for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts could provide more operational space for China's monetary policy, but any decisions will ultimately depend on domestic economic conditions [2][4] - Experts suggest that the adjustment of monetary policies in major economies may lead to increased international capital flows, which could support China's capital markets [4][5] - There is a consensus that the RMB exchange rate will remain resilient, with limited impact from changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace [4]