中金公司：风险资产长期来看仍具潜力，美元下行周期也将持续

Core Insights - The U.S. economy hit a bottom in June and showed signs of improvement in July, following policy shocks in the first half of the year [1] - A wave of debt issuance began in July, gradually absorbing U.S. dollar liquidity [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may start to become evident, and combined with tightening dollar liquidity, this could negatively affect U.S. stock performance in August and September [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may quickly bottom out and gradually rise to around 4.8% [1] - From a longer-term perspective, increased fiscal intervention alongside monetary policy may lead to a resumption of dollar liquidity easing, supporting the potential of risk assets [1] - The downward cycle of the dollar is expected to continue [1]