Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract down 0.04% at 119.330 yuan, the 10-year main contract flat at 108.555 yuan, the 5-year main contract up 0.02% at 105.775 yuan, and the 2-year main contract up 0.02% at 102.370 yuan [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" yield down 0.05 basis points, the 10-year policy bank bond "25 Policy Bank 10" yield up 0.1 basis points, the 10-year government bond "25 Coupon Government Bond 11" yield down 0.7 basis points, and the 5-year policy bank bond "25 Policy Bank 08" yield down 0.75 basis points [1] Funding Situation - The central bank announced a fixed-rate, quantity tender operation of 138.5 billion yuan for a 7-day reverse repurchase on August 6, with a bidding amount of 138.5 billion yuan and a winning amount of 138.5 billion yuan. On the same day, 309 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 170.5 billion yuan [2] - The central bank's open market has continuously net withdrawn funds, which does not hinder the loose funding situation in the interbank market, with the overnight repurchase rate slightly rising but still hovering around the low point of 1.31% [2] Operational Suggestions - The impact of the new bond tax regulations on the market has diminished, with futures supported by a loose funding environment mostly fluctuating upwards. It is expected that in early August, the political bureau meeting will conclude, and the results of the China-US negotiations will temporarily settle, leading to a reduction in domestic and foreign policy negatives [3] - Additionally, the early-month funding expectations are turning loose, and the new bond tax regulations are expected to benefit older bonds that do not incur interest value-added tax. The high-frequency data indicates that there are no significant changes in economic structure, and the short-term PPI is rising while demand remains stable, which may not drive bond market interest rates up in the near term. Therefore, it is anticipated that bond futures may have a chance to fluctuate upwards in early August, with opportunities to buy on dips and a focus on July economic data [3]
国债期货：资金延续宽松 期债震荡偏暖
Jin Tou Wang·2025-08-07 02:01