英国央行今夜料降息 漫长政策正常化启程

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a rate cut by the Bank of England, potentially lowering the key interest rate to 4%, which is seen as a relief for the struggling economy [1] Group 1: Economic Context - The Bank of England has faced multiple challenges over the past five years, including Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic, and subsequent supply-demand imbalances [1] - A combination of large-scale monetary and fiscal stimulus has led to inflation rates soaring to the highest levels in over 40 years [1] - The energy cost surge due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict has further exacerbated the economic situation [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Bank of England began raising interest rates in 2021 and only started to gradually reduce borrowing costs last year [1] - Despite these efforts, inflation levels have not stabilized back to the 2% target, and new global trade barriers are complicating the economic outlook [1] - The current easing cycle is likely to be the shallowest and longest in modern history due to policymakers' extreme caution and differing opinions [1] Group 3: Currency Analysis - The technical outlook for GBP/USD remains bearish, with daily moving averages indicating a downward trend [1] - Recent death crosses have formed between the 10-day and 100-day moving averages, as well as the 30-day and 55-day moving averages [1] - The 14-day momentum indicator is still in negative territory, suggesting continued weakness in the currency [1]