新世纪期货：关税人事乱避险升温 预计黄金维持高位震荡

Macro Economic Insights - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated that the U.S. economy is slowing down, suggesting that a rate cut may be an appropriate policy path in the short term, with expectations of two rate cuts by the end of the year unless tariffs lead to persistent inflation [1][2] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly echoed similar views, stating that the Fed should act quickly to cut rates due to a cooling labor market and the expectation of declining inflation [1][2] - Fed Governor Cook expressed concerns that the July employment report signals an economic turning point, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs in July and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [2] Market Reactions and Predictions - The probability of the Fed maintaining rates in September is 6.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 93.6%, indicating strong market expectations for a rate cut [2] - The recent announcement by President Trump regarding nearly 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductor products adds to market uncertainty, which may influence Fed policy and investor sentiment [2][3] Gold Market Dynamics - In the context of high interest rates and global economic restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being based on real interest rates to central bank purchases, reflecting a decentralized and risk-averse demand [3] - The demand for physical gold in China has significantly increased, with the central bank resuming gold purchases since November, contributing to upward pressure on gold prices [3][4] - The geopolitical risks and Trump's tariff policies are expected to maintain market uncertainty, leading to a rebound in safe-haven demand for gold, which is projected to remain high [4]