罗志恒：“对等关税2.0”有哪些变化，影响几何

Core Viewpoint - The new tariff policy "Reciprocal Tariff 2.0" is more systematic and operational compared to its predecessor, and it warrants significant attention and caution [1] Summary by Sections Changes in Tariff Structure - "Reciprocal Tariff 2.0" introduces a systematic restructuring of tariff rates, lowering rates for most economies to a range of 10% to 40%, depending on trade relations with the U.S. [2][3] - The previous version's arbitrary high tariffs, such as the 50% on Lesotho, have been adjusted, with Lesotho's rate now reduced to 15% [2][3] Specific Tariff Rates - The new tariff structure includes eight brackets, with the lowest being 10% for economies with a trade surplus with the U.S., such as the UK and Australia [3][4] - The 15% bracket targets U.S. allies and small economies with trade deficits, while a special 19% rate applies to certain Southeast Asian and South Asian countries [4][5] Impact on Trade and Inflation - The new tariffs are expected to increase the average tariff rate in the U.S., raising tariff revenue and contributing to inflation [1][10] - The comprehensive tightening of tariff policies, including the elimination of the $800 exemption for small packages, is projected to further impact exports from China [1][18] Enforcement Measures - The cancellation of the small package exemption and the introduction of a 40% punitive tariff on transshipment goods are aimed at closing loopholes in tariff evasion [6][8] - The U.S. has established a comprehensive system to combat transshipment, including the use of the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) for enforcement [8] Financial Implications - U.S. tariff revenue has significantly increased, with a cumulative revenue of $87.2 billion in the first half of 2025, a 2.4-fold increase year-on-year [10][15] - The cancellation of the small package exemption is expected to generate over $10 billion in additional tariff revenue annually [17][18] Global Trade Dynamics - The tightening of tariffs is likely to disrupt global supply chains and increase production costs, particularly affecting countries like Vietnam that have been used for transshipment [18] - The actual tariff rate on Chinese exports is around 45%, significantly higher than that of other economies, which may lead to further adverse effects on Chinese exports [18]