连续五轮涨价后焦炭市场是否会迎来拐点？

Core Viewpoint - Since mid-July, the spot price of coke has increased for five consecutive rounds, with a cumulative rise of 250-275 yuan per ton, reaching 1645 yuan per ton as of August 6, representing a more than 20% increase. The market is now focused on whether coke prices will reach a turning point after these price hikes [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Analysts indicate that coke prices are expected to maintain a stable to strong trend in the short term due to supportive factors on the supply side [1]. - Recent concerns over tight coking coal supply due to coal mine overproduction checks have emerged, alongside disruptions in railway transport caused by heavy rainfall in northern regions [1]. - Anticipated environmental production limits ahead of major events are also contributing to market volatility [1]. Market Characteristics - The current spot market for coke exhibits a "three shortages" characteristic: - Reduced willingness to increase production due to losses at coking plants - Limited release of inventory by traders - Decreased delivery volumes to steel mills due to rain impacts [1]. - High upstream coking coal prices continue to provide cost support for coke, indicating that prices are likely to remain stable to strong in the short term, with expectations for a sixth round of price increases [1].