利多支撑不足，8月玉米价格或延续震荡下行趋势

Core Viewpoint - In August, domestic corn prices are experiencing slight declines amidst a stable market, influenced by limited supply of old corn and the upcoming harvest of spring corn in North China [1][8]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply of old corn in major production areas is decreasing, providing strong support for corn prices, with minimal price drops observed in the last two weeks [2]. - As of August 5, the mainstream transaction price for corn in Heilongjiang, Northeast China, is 2190-2220 RMB/ton, a slight decrease of 10 RMB/ton from July 20 [2]. - In North China, the price for livestock corn in Henan is stable at 1.20-1.21 RMB/jin, with most traders having very little old corn left in stock [2]. - The average price for deep processing enterprises in Shandong is 2478 RMB/ton, showing a slight increase of 5 RMB/ton, or 0.20%, from July 20 [2]. Market Conditions - The upcoming harvest of spring corn in North China is expected to alleviate supply tightness, with significant quantities expected to be released in mid-August [4]. - The State Reserve's dual rotation of corn will also contribute to market supply, alongside imported corn from July auctions [4]. - Weather conditions, particularly drought in the Huang-Huai region, are affecting corn growth, with farmers actively engaging in irrigation efforts [5]. Industry Performance - In July, the average operating load of the domestic corn starch industry was 50.76%, a decrease of 2.87 percentage points from the previous month [6]. - The ethanol industry also saw a decline in operating load to 33.38%, with increased maintenance affecting corn consumption [6]. - It is anticipated that the operating load in the starch industry will slightly increase in August, providing some support for corn consumption [6]. Price Outlook - Overall, while the supply of old corn is decreasing, the influx of new corn and rotation grain will likely keep the supply gap small [8]. - Demand from feed and livestock enterprises is currently low, with corn inventories reduced to 30-40 days, leading to insufficient support for new corn purchases [8]. - The expected price decline for corn in August is projected to be limited, with a potential drop of 30-50 RMB/ton due to the scarcity of quality old corn [8].