高温缺水致米价再“抬头”！日本政府欲废除限制政策，为大米增产松绑

Core Viewpoint - The root cause of Japan's "rice crisis" is attributed to the government's long-standing "reduction and return policy," which has suppressed rice production for decades [1][4]. Group 1: Weather Impact - Japan is experiencing extreme heat, with temperatures reaching 41.8 degrees Celsius, setting new records [1]. - The average temperature in July was 2.89 degrees Celsius higher than usual, marking the highest since records began in 1898 [1]. - Reduced rainfall and high temperatures have led to a critical water shortage in reservoirs, negatively impacting rice and other crops [1]. Group 2: Rice Price Trends - After a nine-week decline, rice prices in Japan have started to rise again, with a 1.1% increase in the price of a 5-kilogram bag, now at 3,625 yen (approximately 24 USD) [2]. - The peak price for rice occurred in May, with prices reaching 4,268 to 4,285 yen (approximately 213 to 214 RMB), more than double the previous year's prices [2]. - The government has been releasing reserve rice to stabilize prices, but they remain high compared to previous years [2]. Group 3: Government Policy Changes - Prime Minister Kishida announced a shift in rice policy from suppressing production to increasing it, expected to be implemented from the fiscal year 2027 [1][4]. - The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has acknowledged a supply-demand imbalance, attributing it to declining population and changing consumption habits [2][4]. - The government plans to utilize abandoned farmland and assist farmers in expanding sales channels to address food shortages and high prices [4][5]. Group 4: Agricultural Associations and Market Dynamics - The Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA) has been criticized for hoarding rice, which has contributed to market supply issues [3]. - JA controls over 90% of Japanese farmers and influences both economic and political aspects of agriculture in Japan [3]. - The historical "reduction and return policy" has led to a decrease in rice production, with only about 60% of rice paddies currently utilized [5]. Group 5: Future Projections - The estimated rice production for 2025 is projected to reach 7.35 million tons, an increase of 560,000 tons from 2024, marking the largest increase since 2004 [5]. - The total rice planting area is expected to reach 1.363 million hectares, an increase of 104,000 hectares from the previous year [5].