高温缺水致米价再“抬头”！日本政府欲废除限制政策 为大米增产松绑

Core Viewpoint - Japan is experiencing extreme heat, leading to a significant increase in rice prices and prompting a shift in government policy from production suppression to production enhancement [1][2][4]. Group 1: Weather Impact - Japan's average temperature in July reached a record high, 2.89 degrees Celsius above the norm, with some areas recording temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius [1]. - The extreme heat and reduced rainfall have resulted in a critical water shortage in reservoirs, negatively affecting crop yields, particularly rice [1]. Group 2: Rice Price Trends - After a nine-week decline, rice prices in Japan have started to rise again, with a 1.1% increase in the price of a 5-kilogram bag, now approximately 3,625 yen (about 24 USD) [2]. - The peak price for rice occurred in May, with prices for a 5-kilogram bag reaching between 4,268 and 4,285 yen, more than double the price from the previous year [2]. Group 3: Government Policy Shift - Prime Minister Kishida announced a shift in rice policy from suppressing production to increasing it, marking the end of the decades-long "Reduction and Return Policy" aimed at controlling rice output [1][4]. - The government plans to utilize abandoned farmland and assist farmers in expanding sales channels to address food shortages and high prices [4]. Group 4: Agricultural Challenges - The Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA) has been criticized for potentially hoarding rice, which may have contributed to market supply issues [3]. - The long-standing "Reduction and Return Policy" has led to a decrease in rice production, with only about 60% of rice paddies currently in use, resulting in production levels below half of the peak [5]. Group 5: Future Projections - The Ministry of Agriculture predicts that by 2025, rice production will reach 7.35 million tons, an increase of 560,000 tons from 2024, marking the largest increase since 2004 [5]. - The expected rice planting area is projected to be 1.363 million hectares, an increase of 104,000 hectares from the previous year [5].