政策真空期现“避风港”：30年国债ETF博时(511130)交投激增，久期策略重回C位

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.12%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices fell by 0.13% and 0.52% respectively, and the North China 50 Index rose by 0.43% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 1.2062 trillion yuan, an increase of 132.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Bond Market Dynamics - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 160.7 billion yuan at a stable interest rate of 1.40% [1] - The yields on major bonds showed slight fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.5 basis points to 1.699%, while the 10-year policy bank bond yield increased by 0.1 basis points to 1.796% [1] - The bond market has experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from a low of 1.64% in early July to a peak of 1.75% at the end of July before retreating [1] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts suggest that despite a hot equity market, the underlying economic fundamentals remain weak, leading to a cautious outlook for the bond market, which is expected to fluctuate within a range of 1.6% to 1.8% for the 10-year government bond yield [2] - The sentiment in the market is more stable compared to the redemption environment of 2022, with institutional views leaning towards a bullish stance [2] - Huaxi Securities indicates that opportunities for a bond bull market are emerging, recommending extending duration positions [3] Strategic Insights - Analysts recommend maintaining a neutral to slightly high duration strategy in the bond market, as recent policy expectations have cooled and economic indicators suggest a weak reality [4] - The current market risk appetite has increased, limiting the potential for significant interest rate declines, while also constraining the upward movement of rates due to the unstable economic fundamentals [4] - The 30-year government bond ETF, launched in March 2024, is highlighted as a significant investment vehicle, tracking the performance of the 30-year government bond index [5]