Market Review - On August 6, the Shanghai aluminum futures contract 2509 opened higher and closed at 20,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan or 0.44% from the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - In the week ending July 2025, Brazil exported a total of 611,900 tons of bauxite and aluminum concentrate, compared to 444,100 tons in August of the previous year. The average daily shipment increased by 37.77% to 26,600 tons per day from 19,300 tons per day last August [2] - As of August 4, SMM reported a domestic aluminum ingot social inventory of 564,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. The increase in smelting and casting volume, combined with the seasonal consumption slowdown, continues to support strong inventory accumulation expectations [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhongyuan Futures noted that on the supply side, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, with a decrease in aluminum water ratio and an increase in casting volume, leading to more market circulation supply. The ongoing inventory accumulation is expected to suppress aluminum prices. On the demand side, the downstream market remains in a seasonal lull, with spot purchases being made as needed, and the current spot premium showing limited upward momentum. Despite the decline in aluminum prices, there is no significant improvement in orders for processing plants [4] - Hualian Futures highlighted that the market is currently observing the impact of the rainy season on transportation in Guinea, with supply remaining ample. The production and operating rates of alumina continue to rise, and new capacity is being put into production, leading to ongoing expectations of market oversupply. Inventory is increasing, and while warehouse receipts have slightly risen, they remain low, with spot prices stable. The Shanghai aluminum market is constrained by the seasonal lull and high prices, with slight inventory increases and limited short-term upward momentum. However, the supply side has very limited production increase potential, providing some price support. The domestic "anti-involution" policy remains stable alongside long-term goals of "promoting consumption and stabilizing growth." Although short-term upward drivers for Shanghai aluminum are limited, the mid-term peak season in September and October supports a bullish outlook. It is recommended to maintain a primary long position, with a reference support level for Shanghai aluminum 2509 at 20,200 yuan/ton [4]
累库预期仍旧较强 沪铝盘面短期上涨驱动有限
Jin Tou Wang·2025-08-07 07:58