短期降息预期提振 锌价弱反弹修整

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of the domestic non-ferrous metal market, particularly focusing on the slight increase in zinc futures prices amid macroeconomic concerns and supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 2 - On the macroeconomic front, the unexpected decline in the U.S. non-farm payroll data for July and the significant downward revision of previous months' employment figures have raised concerns about a cooling job market, leading to increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] - The domestic political bureau meeting results were below market expectations, lacking significant incremental policies, and combined with weak manufacturing PMI data both domestically and internationally, indicate a weakening economic growth momentum [1] Group 3 - In terms of supply, there was a notable increase in zinc concentrate production in July due to growth in mining output from regions like Xinjiang and Hebei, although production may see a slight decline in August due to maintenance in Sichuan and Yunnan [1] Group 4 - Regarding demand, there was a significant drop in the operating rate of downstream zinc industries, reaching a near four-year low, indicating a phase of demand exhaustion [1] - Downstream raw material inventories have decreased, while finished product inventories remain relatively low, reflecting an active destocking behavior [1] Group 5 - Looking ahead, the basic fundamentals show no new contradictions, with downstream entities primarily focused on inventory digestion after previous low-level restocking, leading to poor purchasing enthusiasm [1] - Short-term expectations of interest rate cuts may support a weak rebound in zinc prices, but the outlook remains constrained by strong surplus expectations, suggesting limited upside potential for price rebounds [1]