美联储9月降息似已板上钉钉，以史为鉴能为美股带来多少提振？

Group 1 - Investors are hopeful for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which historically has been a catalyst for stock market gains [1][2] - LPL Financial's research indicates that since 1974, the average return of the S&P 500 during nine rate-cutting cycles was 30.3%, with a median return of 13.3% [1] - Notably, six out of the nine rate-cutting periods resulted in positive returns, suggesting potential upward momentum for the U.S. stock market in the latter half of 2025 [1] Group 2 - However, rate cuts do not always guarantee positive market performance, as seen in the 2007-2009 and 2001-2004 cycles where the S&P 500 fell by 23.5% and 9.6%, respectively [2] - Current investor sentiment has driven the market to new highs, with a 12% increase since the Fed's first rate cut last September [2] - Concerns about trade policy and its delayed effects on the economy may pose risks, with potential pressure on labor market demand [2] Group 3 - In the short term, a conservative investment strategy is recommended, focusing on growth stocks, large-cap stocks, and sectors like financials and communication services [4] - Investors should prepare for potential volatility given the current optimistic sentiment reflected in the stock market [4]