智通财经网·2025-08-07 08:52Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs recently released a report on the outlook for the U.S. banking industry in 2025, highlighting strong growth in core earnings for large banks in Q2 2025, with a focus on net interest income (NII) and capital market recovery [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, core earnings for large banks exceeded VisibleAlpha consensus data by 8%, driven by revenue growth, improved profit margins, and reduced provisions [1] - NII is expected to grow by an average of 5% in 2025E/2026E, supported by improved loan growth and ongoing repricing of fixed assets [1][2] - Commercial loans and credit card sectors showed strong performance, with growth rates of 5.2% and 2.8% respectively, while total deposits increased by 2% (approximately $115 billion) [1] Capital Management and Regulatory Reform - Capital returns are projected to grow by 30% in 2025, marking the first time since 2019 that returns exceed historical averages [2] - Regulatory reforms could potentially lower the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital targets by 150 basis points, releasing approximately $115 billion in excess capital [2] Business Segment Performance - Trading activities remain robust, with trading revenues expected to be 25% higher than the average from 2011-2019 [2] - Investment banking is gradually recovering, with significant growth in advisory and equity capital markets (ECM) revenues [2] Cost Management and Efficiency - Expenses for large banks are expected to grow by 4.5% in 2025E, which is lower than revenue growth, indicating operational leverage [2] - Efficiency ratios are expected to improve, reaching the lowest level since 2016 by 2027E [2] Individual Bank Outlook - Bank of America (BAC.US): Expected net income growth of 7% in 2025/2026, outperforming the average of large banks by approximately 1-3 percentage points [3][4] - Wells Fargo (WFC.US): Optimistic outlook due to the lifting of asset caps, which will help regain lost market share and support traditional banking growth [3][5] - Citigroup (C.US): Strong Q2 2025 performance indicates ongoing commitment to achieving mid-term ROTCE targets, with expected EPS growth exceeding consensus estimates [5][6]