国内库存缓步抬升 预计铅价上行空间相对有限

Core Insights - The lead prices in China have shown a slight increase, with the average price for 1 lead reported at 16,850 CNY per ton, up by 10 CNY from the previous day [1] - The futures market for lead also reflects a positive trend, with the main contract closing at 16,875 CNY per ton, marking a 0.27% increase [2] Price Overview - The current market prices for 1 lead ingots vary by region, with Shanghai Huato reporting 16,850 CNY per ton and Guangdong Nanchu at 16,800 CNY per ton [2] - The trading volume in the futures market reached 32,431 contracts on August 7 [2] Production and Inventory Insights - A survey of 35 primary lead smelting enterprises indicates a total capacity of 4.567 million tons, with a production increase expected in August 2025 [3] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported an increase in lead inventory, with registered warrants at 196,225 tons and total inventory at 269,400 tons [3] Market Analysis - According to a report from Wenkang Futures, the supply of primary lead ingots is tightening due to a decrease in visible inventory and raw material shortages [4] - The recycling sector is also facing raw material constraints, although the operating rate for recycled lead smelting is gradually increasing [4] - Environmental regulations have led to some recycled lead plants in Anhui to halt production, contributing to the upward pressure on lead prices [4]