India isn't flinching: Why Trump might be misreading India's tariff playbook

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods and threatened secondary sanctions over India's oil trade with Russia, leading to a mixed response in India's stock market and political landscape [1][2][3]. Economic Impact - The potential impact on India's GDP from the U.S. tariffs is estimated at 60 basis points, approximately $23 billion [5]. - Allowing U.S. dairy exports into India could cost the country ₹1.8 lakh crore ($20 billion), with over half of this burden affecting farmers directly [6]. - The gem and jewelry sector may face catastrophic consequences, while seafood exporters could lose nearly $3 billion annually due to the tariffs [8]. - India's textile industry anticipates a loss of $5 billion in business due to the tariffs [8]. - High U.S. duties may hinder India's ability to attract foreign direct investment (FDI), although domestic consumption accounts for over 60% of India's GDP [9]. Trade Data - In 2024, India's exports to the U.S. included electronics ($11.1 billion), gems and jewelry ($9.9 billion), pharmaceuticals ($8.1 billion), nuclear reactors and machinery ($6.2 billion), and refined petroleum products ($5.8 billion) [7]. - Total bilateral trade with the U.S. in 2024 was $212.3 billion, with goods trade at $129 billion and services trade at $83.4 billion [11]. Political Response - Indian Prime Minister Modi has gained support from the opposition to resist U.S. demands, emphasizing that India will not compromise on the interests of farmers [2][4]. - Modi's government has already taken steps to reduce duties on various U.S. imports and has increased oil purchases from the U.S. by 120% in the last six months [16][17]. Diplomatic Efforts - Modi is planning a visit to China and has sent India's National Security Advisor to Russia to pursue diplomatic solutions [13]. - India's foreign ministry has criticized U.S. hypocrisy regarding its own trade with Russia, while also highlighting that most of India's oil trade with Russia is settled in dirhams [14][15]. Future Considerations - The Indian government is exploring legal options and strategies in response to U.S. actions, emphasizing the importance of collaboration with other affected trading partners [20]. - A potential breakthrough in talks between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine could alleviate India's concerns regarding oil purchases from Russia [21].