外储变动受多重因素影响，央行持续增持黄金成常态

Core Insights - China's official gold reserves have increased for nine consecutive months, with a total of 7,396 million ounces as of the end of July, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6,000 ounces [1][4][6] - As of the end of July, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,922 billion, a decrease of $25.2 billion or 0.76% from the end of June, primarily due to fluctuations in the dollar index and asset prices [1][2][3] Foreign Exchange Reserves - The decline in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to a significant rise in the dollar index, which increased by 3.39% at the end of July compared to the end of June, reversing a five-month downward trend [2][3] - The depreciation of non-dollar currencies, including the Japanese yen, euro, and British pound, against the dollar has also contributed to the decrease in foreign reserves, as these reserves are primarily dollar-denominated [2][3] Gold Reserves Strategy - The continuous increase in gold reserves is seen as a strategic move to optimize the international reserve structure, with the current gold share in China's international reserves at 7.0%, significantly below the global average of around 15% [4][6] - Analysts predict that the trend of increasing gold reserves will continue, driven by the need to enhance the credibility of the sovereign currency and support the gradual internationalization of the renminbi [6] Market Outlook - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand is expected to reach a historical high of 4,974 tons in 2024, with central banks remaining the primary buyers despite a slowdown in purchases in the second quarter [5] - The outlook for gold prices remains positive, with forecasts suggesting potential increases due to ongoing economic uncertainties and inflation concerns [4][5]