谋篇“十五五”，利率市场化改革如何续写新篇？|“十四五”规划收官

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of interest rate marketization in China, highlighting its role in effectively transmitting monetary policy signals to the real economy, especially during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and looking ahead to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][10]. Group 1: Interest Rate Marketization Reform - The interest rate marketization reform has entered a deep-water zone during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with the establishment of a market-oriented transmission mechanism that allows monetary policy signals to reach the real economy efficiently [1][2]. - Key breakthroughs in the reform include the comprehensive smoothing of the interest rate transmission mechanism, optimization of the policy interest rate system, and the formal establishment of a market-oriented interest rate system [2][3]. Group 2: Policy Rate and Market Rates - In 2024, the central bank will establish the 7-day reverse repurchase rate as the main policy interest rate, replacing the MLF rate, which enhances the short-term interest rate's guiding role in the market [2][3]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has guided market interest rates to operate smoothly around the policy interest rate, improving liquidity management among institutions [3][4]. Group 3: Impact on Loan and Deposit Rates - The reform has led to a decline in the weighted average interest rate of RMB loans since 2019, effectively reducing the overall financing costs for society [4][5]. - The PBOC has established a market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit rates, allowing banks to adjust rates based on the 10-year government bond yield and the 1-year LPR [4][5]. Group 4: Challenges and Optimization - Despite significant achievements, there is still room for optimization in the interest rate transmission mechanism, particularly in enhancing the quality of LPR quotations and addressing the mismatch between quoted rates and actual preferential rates [6][7]. - The article highlights the need to address the "scale obsession" in the banking sector, which has led to unhealthy competition and affected the sustainability of financial support for the real economy [8][9]. Group 5: Future Directions - Looking ahead to the "15th Five-Year Plan," the focus will be on optimizing the interest rate transmission mechanism and ensuring that monetary policy is flexible and forward-looking to support the real economy [10][12]. - Recommendations include further simplifying the policy interest rate system and exploring a tiered reserve requirement system to enhance banks' willingness to lend to specific groups [11][12].