7月货物进出口何以保持韧性？最新解读

Core Insights - China's total goods trade import and export value reached 25.7 trillion yuan in the first seven months, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with exports growing by 7.3% and imports declining by 1.6%, exceeding market expectations [1][2] - In July alone, the total goods trade value was 3.91 trillion yuan, marking a 6.7% year-on-year growth, the highest monthly figure for the year [1][2] - High-tech products contributed over 40% to the overall growth of imports and exports, with high-tech product trade exceeding 5 trillion yuan in the first seven months [3] Trade Performance - The growth rate of imports and exports in the first seven months accelerated by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, with exports accelerating by 0.1 percentage points and the decline in imports narrowing by 1.1 percentage points [2] - In July, exports reached 2.31 trillion yuan, growing by 8%, while imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, increasing by 4.8%, marking two consecutive months of growth [2] High-Tech Product Impact - Exports of electromechanical products totaled 9.18 trillion yuan, a 9.3% increase, accounting for 60% of total exports, with significant growth in automatic data processing equipment, integrated circuits, and automobiles [3] - The export value of electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products, referred to as the "new three samples," achieved a steady growth of 14.9% [3] Regional Trade Dynamics - Trade with countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5.5%, with total trade reaching 13.29 trillion yuan in the first seven months [5] - ASEAN, the EU, and the US remained China's top three trading partners, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.4%, 3.9%, and a decline of 11.1%, respectively [6] Future Outlook - The recent trade agreements between the US and various economies may lead to increased tariffs, potentially impacting global trade and adding uncertainty to China's export outlook [6]