美联储主席“换届大戏”拉开帷幕， 美元会贬值吗？

Group 1 - President Trump is expected to nominate a candidate for the upcoming vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board, narrowing down potential successors to four individuals [1] - The resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler creates an opportunity for Trump to appoint a preferred candidate, which may lead to a more dovish Fed chair [1] - Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September have increased significantly, putting pressure on the US dollar index, which is hovering around the 98 mark [1] Group 2 - Three main candidates for the next Fed chair are emerging: Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Christopher J. Waller, all of whom are inclined to support rate cuts [2] - If the US adopts a significantly accommodative fiscal and monetary policy, it may lead to a scenario of re-inflation, impacting the dollar's purchasing power and exacerbating "de-dollarization" trends [2] - Concerns about the quality and credibility of US economic data, along with political pressures on Fed independence, are contributing to the risk of a weaker dollar [2] Group 3 - The long-term outlook for the dollar is still heavily influenced by US economic fundamentals, with upcoming inflation data expected to provide short-term support for the dollar index [3] - The change in Fed chair may have a more short-term impact on market sentiment, while core drivers of the dollar index remain tied to economic performance [3]