Group 1: Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5-4 to lower the Bank Rate from 4.25% to 4% in August 2025, reflecting a significant decline in inflation over the past two years and recognizing existing idle capacity in the economy [1] - The average CPI inflation for Q2 2025 was 3.5%, up from 2.8% in Q1, with June's inflation reaching 3.6%, driven by rising energy, food, and regulated prices [2] - Short-term inflation is expected to peak at 4.0% in September, averaging around 3.75% in the second half of the year, and declining to 3.6% by year-end [2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Labor Market - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 0.1%, indicating weak potential growth with idle capacity at approximately 0.5% of potential GDP [2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.7% in May 2025, projected to reach 4.9% by mid-2026, with job growth stagnating due to rising labor costs [3] - Future GDP growth is expected to fluctuate between 1.2% and 1.7% over the next four years, with household savings rates being a key driver [2] Group 3: Risks and Global Environment - There are increasing medium-term inflation risks due to potential short-term inflation rebounds, global energy price fluctuations, and trade policy changes [3] - Economic growth faces downward pressure from weak domestic demand and geopolitical factors, with ongoing geopolitical risks affecting energy prices [4] - The Bank of England maintains a restrictive monetary policy to guide inflation back to target, with future rate adjustments being data-dependent [4]
英国央行8月货币政策:降息至4% 通胀短期回升但中期趋稳
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-08-07 14:10