Uber Technologies Is Driving Cash Flow: Ride It Higher for Life

Core Viewpoint - Uber Technologies has transitioned from a risky tech startup to a blue-chip quality stock, with robust capital returns and significant growth potential [1][2]. Business and Operational Quality - The board has authorized a $20 billion share repurchase program, representing approximately 10% of the market cap as of early August [2]. - Uber's share buybacks have resulted in a 1.1% reduction in share count year-over-year, expected to continue offsetting share-based compensation [2]. - The company is projected to achieve a 400% to 600% increase in stock price over the next decade, trading at 32 times its current earnings outlook [3]. Growth Trajectory - Earnings are forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the high-20% to high-30% range for at least the next ten years, potentially reaching 5 times earnings by 2035 [4]. - The company has reported an 18% increase in trips and gross bookings, alongside a 35% increase in adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings [9]. Analyst Sentiment - The consensus among 38 analysts is a high conviction Moderate Buy rating, with over 70% rating it as a Buy, indicating a 10% upside potential [7]. - Despite mixed Q2 results, the overall sentiment remains positive, with price target increases offsetting downgrades [6]. Financial Metrics - The Q2 results showed a bottom-line miss due to increased investments in business acquisition and growth, but the market did not view this as a major concern [9]. - Free cash flow for Q2 was reported at $2.5 billion, with a payout ratio near 50%, indicating sustainability in share buybacks [10]. - Institutional ownership exceeds 80%, providing a solid support base for the stock [11].