7月百城新旧房价格继续分化 业内：短期楼市仍处调整期

Core Insights - The real estate market in July showed a divergence between new and second-hand housing prices, with new home prices experiencing a slight increase while second-hand home prices continued to decline [1][4]. New Housing Market - In July, the average price of new residential properties in 100 cities was 16,877 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.18% and a year-on-year increase of 2.64% [1][2]. - First-tier cities led the new housing price recovery, with a month-on-month increase of 0.36% in July, driven by high-end improvement projects [2]. - Second-tier cities also saw a month-on-month increase of 0.23%, with Hangzhou leading at 1.51% [2]. - In contrast, third and fourth-tier cities faced pressure, with a month-on-month decline of 0.19% [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall supply and demand in the real estate market experienced a seasonal decline, with new housing transaction volume in 30 key cities at 8.36 million square meters in July, remaining stable compared to the previous year [3]. - The central government emphasized transitioning from large-scale expansion to improving existing stock, which may inject vitality into the new housing market [3]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,585 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.77% and a year-on-year decline of 7.32% [4][5]. - The second-hand housing market is characterized by a "price for volume" strategy, with significant price drops in cities like Huai'an and Yancheng [4]. - In July, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in 14 key monitored cities decreased by 1.83% month-on-month and 9.05% year-on-year [5]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The second-hand housing market is facing challenges, with increasing listing volumes leading to a longer de-stocking cycle of 16.8 months, indicating weakened market absorption capacity [6]. - Analysts predict that without significant external positive factors, the second-hand housing market may experience simultaneous declines in both volume and price in the second half of the year [6].