白宫施压换套路 “影子主席”难撼美联储根基

Core Viewpoint - The potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair have been narrowed down to four individuals, indicating a significant shift in the political landscape surrounding the Fed's leadership [1][2]. Candidate Summary - The list of potential candidates includes former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and one unidentified candidate [2][3]. - The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler has created an opportunity for the White House to nominate a new member to the Fed Board, potentially influencing monetary policy [3]. Political Implications - Analysts suggest that the White House's intention to appoint a "shadow chair" is aimed at influencing market expectations and monetary policy before Powell's term ends [4]. - The motivation behind this political maneuvering is believed to be linked to alleviating fiscal pressures and stimulating the economy ahead of midterm elections [4]. Independence of the Federal Reserve - Despite attempts to influence the Fed, the institution's strong independence and decision-making mechanisms are expected to act as barriers against significant changes in policy direction [6][7]. - Legal restrictions prevent the arbitrary dismissal of the Fed Chair, and recent court rulings have reinforced the Fed's policy independence [6]. - The Federal Open Market Committee operates on a two-thirds majority voting system, which currently leans towards maintaining the status quo [6]. Potential Outcomes - Various scenarios are anticipated, including the appointment of a more dovish candidate or a loyal supporter of Trump, with the possibility of undermining Powell's authority before his term ends [4][5]. - The strategy of appointing a politically loyal candidate may lead to concerns about inflation and long-term interest rates, potentially harming the economy [7].