中信证券明明： 政策协同驱动我国经济在转型中释放新动能

Economic Growth and Structure - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, showcasing a transition from scale expansion to quality improvement [1] - Final consumption expenditure contributed over 50% to economic growth, indicating that policies focused on stabilizing employment and promoting income are effectively boosting demand [2] - CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, reflecting uneven demand recovery, but a mild inflation environment allows for macro policy adjustments [2] Investment Trends - High-tech industries, particularly information services and aerospace manufacturing, are experiencing growth rates significantly above the overall investment level, indicating a shift towards high value-added sectors [2] - Infrastructure investment increased by 4.6% year-on-year, supported by a rapid issuance of special bonds totaling over 2.1 trillion yuan, which is 667 billion yuan more than the same period last year [4] Consumption Performance - Retail sales of home appliances and communication devices grew by over 20% year-on-year, driven by policies like "trade-in for new" that stimulate consumer demand [3] Policy Measures - Fiscal policy has been effectively supporting economic stability, with increased spending in education, healthcare, and social security, promoting a virtuous cycle of improved livelihoods and consumption [4] - Monetary policy has focused on maintaining liquidity and reducing financing costs, with the average interest rate on new loans dropping to 3.3%, a decrease of 45 basis points from the previous year [5] Export Resilience - Exports, measured in USD, grew by 5.9% year-on-year, with high-end manufacturing sectors like semiconductors and robotics showing significant demand [7] - The digital economy, cloud computing, AI computing power, and biomedicine are emerging as new growth opportunities, aiding the transition from cost advantages to technological and systematic advantages [7] Future Outlook - There is considerable room for policy expansion in the second half of the year, with potential increases in special bond allocations towards new infrastructure and livelihood improvements [7] - The current economic environment is positioned for stable and sustainable high-quality development through policy coordination and structural optimization [8]